Why filling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve could be the secret to success of Trump’s Middle East visit

Jordan Blum

President Trump visited the Middle East this week to much fanfare, pomp and, of course, circumstance as he aims to lower prices at the pump with more oil production from OPEC.<div class="paywall-selector"></div><div class="paywall">



Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and other OPEC countries are in agreement—they also want to churn out more oil and gain global market share—aftre years of voluntary cutbacks. But they decidedly do not want to lower oil and fuel prices because of their need to balance big national budgets.



So, what’s the solution? Using increased OPEC volumes to fill the depleted U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), says Mukesh Sahdev, global head of oil commodity markets for consulting form Rystad Energy.



The idea is that using Middle Eastern crude oil to fill the Texas and Louisiana salt caverns that comprise the SPR would help the Saudis and the rest of OPEC without dragging already weak oil prices much lower. That&#8217;s because the barrels would be kept out of commercial marketplaces and have a limited impact on worldwide supply and demand.



“I know this has not been talked much about in his visit, but I can clearly see a strategic play,&#8221; Sahdev told Fortune. &#8220;OPEC will increase production, and that increased production could be bought by the U.S. to fill the SPR and be ready for the summer.”



The increased OPEC output combined with Trump’s fixation on lower gasoline prices also fit in with all the massive and lofty promises the Saudis and UAE made this week. Those countries need the funds to make good on their pledges for business partnerships with America, including Saudi Arabia&#8217;s <a href="https://fortune.com/2025/05/15/saudi-arabia-600-billion-oil-trump/">pledge to invest $600 billion</a> in the U.S. and Abu Dhabi&#8217;s commitment <a href="https://fortune.com/2025/05/14/nvidia-ai-humain-saudi-arabia-front-of-the-line-wedbush-dan-ives/?utm_source=search&amp;utm_medium=suggested_search&amp;utm_campaign=search_link_clicks" data-type="link" data-id="https://fortune.com/2025/05/14/nvidia-ai-humain-saudi-arabia-front-of-the-line-wedbush-dan-ives/?utm_source=search&amp;utm_medium=suggested_search&amp;utm_campaign=search_link_clicks">to build a huge data center complex</a>.



“If Trump wants the money out of the Middle East and into the U.S., they have to earn it as well,” Sahdev said. “If oil prices fall much further, then they will not earn that money.



“I think the signal is very clear that extra OPEC barrels will flow into the U.S. market,&#8221; he added.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Refining the plans</h2>



The European benchmark for oil that’s closely watched by OPEC is currently hovering near a relatively low $65 per barrel. The Saudis need $80 per barrel to safely balance the kingdom’s budget. And, if prices dip further, then the U.S. oil sector suffers and really starts to scale back more dramatically.



Trump’s visit to the Middle East coincides with a renewed U.S. demand for the region’s oil thanks to a confluence of other economic factors.



The U.S. refining system is mostly configured to run heavier or medium barrels of sour crude oil, as opposed to the light, sweet oil that comes out of West Texas shale. The U.S. exports lots of its shale oil, but also imports heavier barrels from Canada, Mexico, Venezuela, and the Middle East to run through its refineries. Tariffs, sanctions, and financial struggles have led to fewer of those heavier barrels coming from the Americas.



That means the U.S. needs more Middle Eastern crude for its refineries, Sahdev said. Already, Saudi Arabia and Iraq have ramped up exports to the U.S. ahead of the busy summer driving season.



“With the summer peak demand coming, they need the right kind of crude oil,” he said. “And, for any strategic, geopolitical, or military ventures, the SPR in the U.S. needs to be filled.”



Sahdev believes it is “no coincidence” the pending—but currently stalled—U.S. House budget seeks $1.5 billion to replenish and maintain the SPR.&nbsp;The salt cavern facilities have the capacity to store about 727 million barrels, and the SPR currently holds just 400 million barrels. The SPR sat at nearly 700 million barrels when Trump first took office in 2017 and then dipped down to 638 million barrels when Biden took office. The Biden administration then began selling it off more rapidly to help lower fuel prices coming out of the pandemic.



Relying on more barrels from select OPEC nations also gives Trump more leeway with oil sanctions on key producers Venezuela, Iran, and Russia. The could potentially prevent those nations from exporting more barrels, and further help steady oil prices.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Eyes on OPEC</h2>



OPEC and its key allies, a group called OPEC+, already shocked oil markets in April—the same time Trump announced his new tariff policy—with pledges to raise production volumes by more than 2 million barrels per day by late 2025.



<a href="https://fortune.com/article/bp-economist-china-winning-global-energy-war/?utm_source=search&amp;utm_medium=suggested_search&amp;utm_campaign=search_link_clicks">But context is important</a>, said Michael Cohen, <a href="https://fortune.com/company/bp/" target="_blank">BP</a> chief US economist and head of oil and refining, speaking at a Houston energy conference this week.



“It’s very clear there’s been a significant sacrifice in the market share” from OPEC, especially Saudi Arabia, since 2017, Cohen said. “That’s only a fraction of the total amount OPEC has taken off the market.”



Collectively, OPEC+ has taken 5.86 million barrels per day of oil offline since 2022 until this year—more than 5% of global demand—to help strengthen oil markets, partly in response to rising U.S. production and because of slowing global demand growth.



Meanwhile, the U.S. was “blowing all of that out of proportion” and growing from 8.8 million barrels of oil a day at the beginning of 2017 to nearly 13.3 million barrels daily in 2024, essentially a whopping 50% increase to new record highs.



The Saudis can easily produce more than 10.5 million barrels per day, but the kingdom has held production to 9 million barrels per day or less since mid-2023 until now. The Saudis are now ramping up to about 9.5 million barrels daily by late fall.



“That’s not that big of an increase,” Cohen said.</div>

President Trump and OPEC both want increased oil production, but there could be a solution to their difference on opinion on prices.

Why filling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve could be the secret to Trump's Middle East success

U.S. President Donald Trump shakes hands with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman during Trump's visit to the Middle East.

Did your workplace make our list of the 100 Best Companies to Work For?
<a href="https://fortune.com/ranking/best-companies/?&itm_source=fortune&itm_medium=article_tout&itm_campaign=AprMayMag">Explore this year's list.</a>

P-Reported

OPEC

Politics

Economy

Features

Leadership

Middle East

North America

Why filling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve could be the secret to Trump's Middle East success | Fortune

Jennifer A. Dlouhy

Bloomberg

Trump extends deadline for 50% tariffs on EU to July 9

/2025/05/25/trump-tariffs-deadline-50-percent-european-union-july-9/

Alastair Marsh

U.S. risks losing ‘reliable investment’ status, Allianz GI manager says

/2025/05/25/us-reliable-investment-status-clean-energy-tax-incentives-ira-congress/

David Voreacos

Janet Lorin

Harvard reprieve for foreign students won’t stop looming threats

/2025/05/24/harvard-foreign-students-international-visas-trump-lawsuit/

Toru Fujioka

Japan signals intent to reach US tariff deal by G-7 in June

/2025/05/24/japan-us-tariff-deal-g7-summit-trump-trade-war/

Mark Chediak

Fate of $20 billion US home solar market lies in GOP Senate hands

/2025/05/24/us-home-solar-market-one-big-beautiful-bill-house-senate-trump/

Mike Schneider

The Associated Press

Elon Musk’s DOGE is reportedly targeting the Census Bureau next. One expert says it’s likely to eliminate its survey about prison inmates

/2025/05/23/elon-musk-doge-targeting-census-bureau/

Emma Burleigh

Hundreds of billionaires pledged to give away $600 billion to charity—but the Bill Gates and Warren Buffett era of philanthropy may be over

https://fortune.com/2025/05/24/gates-buffett-philanthropy-new-era-of-giving-women-french-gates-mackenzie-scott/?itm_source=parsely-api

Jason Ma

Jerome Powell tells Princeton grads not to take universities for granted and that 'integrity is all we have—guard it carefully'

https://fortune.com/2025/05/25/jerome-powell-princeton-commencement-speech-universities-trump-harvard-integrity-fed-rates/?itm_source=parsely-api

Dairy Queen CEO says he learned from Warren Buffett that being the 'smartest person in the world' isn't the most important attribute for success

https://fortune.com/2025/05/21/dairy-queen-ceo-warren-buffett-advice-job-interview-passion-intelligence/?itm_source=parsely-api

Alan Suderman

15 years ago, a software developer paid for two pizzas with 10,000 bitcoin. Those pies would be worth $1.1 billion today

https://fortune.com/article/pizza-bitcoin-day-story-laszlo-hanyecz-papa-johns-pizzas-value/?itm_source=parsely-api

Preston Fore

Shark Tank's newest star gives Gen Z grads a reality check—that they need to 'wake up earlier and stay up later' to achieve their dreams

https://fortune.com/2025/05/23/billionaire-kind-founder-daniel-lubetzky-gen-z-college-graduate-advice-shark-tank-boomers/?itm_source=parsely-api

There's a 'buyer's strike' on U.S. assets as foreign investors can't stomach huge deficits anymore, analyst warns

https://fortune.com/2025/05/24/debt-crisis-foreign-buyers-strike-us-assets-deficits-treasury-bonds-dollar-selloff/?itm_source=parsely-api